Last year 2014 was one of the most difficult years Australians have faced in
peacetime. It is a year in which a government showed itself incapable of
governing and the citizenry by and large made clear they were not prepared to
be a party to an attack on the economy of those less advantaged, especially
when they were told the policies would be fair.
So,
the following constitutes a kind of end of year rave about Australia and the
world at this time. It started out as a commentary on the response to friends
about the
article of last May by Warwick Smith in The Guardian on the budget: number
of economists who agree with government economic policy? Nil.
This post was published on my website December 30, 2014
____________________
The
Abbott-led Opposition had consistently criticised the Gillard government as
illegitimate and non-functional when it was in fact legitimate (as are many
coalition governments around the world) and was able to pass substantial
amounts of legislation, albeit not all representing the best that could be put
in place. In government, Abbott faced trouble from cross bench Senators
throughout the year, passing little legislation.
Government
claims of a welfare crisis were undermined by a Household, Income and Labour
Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey by the Melbourne Institute of Applied
Economic and Social Research report that has tracked more than 12,000 people
since 2001. The Survey
showed working age Australians have become far less reliant on welfare
payments since the turn of the century. As Peter Whiteford,Professor in the
Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University pointed
out, Australia has the most targeted social security system in the OECD and
that total social
security payments in Australia, at 12 per cent of average household income,
are the third-lowest in the OECD. Strategies aimed at getting more people on
welfare, including youth and those receiving disability benefits, into work
have nothing to say about job creation!
The
Prime Minister Tony Abbott ended the year in very bad shape and indeed
Treasurer Hockey is said to
have failed. Many have been the commentators giving vent to their views on
that: I don’t need to here. I have in recent posts. Except it is worth
recalling that, on gaining office on September 8 2013, Mr Abbott declared
the Nation “open for business”. Instead
business confidence weakened, terms of trade declined and the deficit grew.
There are multiple reasons which only shows the folly of making grand
predictions about financial outcomes!
I
do want to point out that the posts on this site have changed from ones that
commented in a perhaps fairly staid manner on various issues to increasingly
strident condemnation of trends in Australia and more generally. Apart from
failures in education in many places the overwhelming failure has been in
respect of climate change, though the outcomes of the meetings in Lima atd the
end of 2014 perhaps give some hope.
It
is fair to say that Australia is involved in conflicts in the Middle East which
probably have nothing to do with Australia, or more correctly are unlikely to
solved by our intervention or indeed the intervention of any outside power,
hideous as the situation is.
Immigration
has become a nightmare which decent Australians find appalling, policies based
on lies, as pointed out by many including Julian Burnside, Malcolm Fraser and
Sarah Hanson-Young, and a level of meanness which is hard to imagine.
Consider
this contrasting decision: “Sweden has become the first European Union country
to announce it will give asylum to all Syrian refugees who apply as
reported by SBS for instance. “All Syrian asylum seekers who apply for
asylum in Sweden will get it,” Annie Hoernblad, the spokeswoman for Sweden’s
migration agency, told AFP. The agency made this decision now because it
believes the violence in Syria will not end in the near future.” The decision,
which will give refugees permanent resident status, is valid until further
notice, added Hoernblad.”
The
government has pursued energy policies totally at odds with any verifiable
facts: carbon emissions were decreasing before the carbon tax was repealed and
have increased since then with brown coal being burned in much higher amounts.
Declines in household energy consumption and in petrol prices have delivered
significantly much more financial gain to people than any action of the
government. Energy retailers have been profligate – spending some $40 billions
on infrastructure that will never be needed – and the Energy Regulator lacked
discipline. The arguments for a reduction of the Renewable Energy Target (RET)
are merely a sop to retailers and coal miners. (The actions of the Victorian
State government in promoting urban transport infrastructure in a process which
concealed the lies underlying the asserted outcome and unnecessary desalination
infrastructure are similarly egregious.)
Government
policies on health are utterly irrelevant. A co-paymdent has nothing to do with
maintaining a healthy citizenry and the proposed $20 billion dollar research
fund does not address chronic disease. Anyway the health minister was shoved
off to Immigration in the December reshuffle whilst Social Services are to be
subject to the discipline up to now imposed on Immigration. No hint there of
increasing revenue other than further arguments about the regressive GST
bolstered by ongoing assertions from Western Australia.
Proposals
for funding education so that the major issue of disparities in advantage would
be reduced have been trashed in a welter of lies and misrepresentations. Why
hasn’t the media reported these two comments by the chair of the panel, the
redoubtable David Gonski in his Jean Blackburn Oration to the Australian
College of Educators?
“I
found most of the schools happy places – places of potential but where there
was disadvantage the problems were clear and marked.
“To
this day I remember a principal at a primary school in a very low socioeconomic
area in the west of Sydney looking at me when I asked had he had any success in
getting parents involved with the school. He noted that 40% of his student roll
changed each year and that getting the kids to school within an hour of
commencement each morning was his personal goal for the year – involvement of
parents he had tried but just at the moment felt it was too hard.
Continuing
to talk of what he saw, Gonski noted, “The outstanding professionalism of both the
leaders of the commonwealth department involved in school education and a
number of the equivalents in states.
“I
confess that my un-researched approach was to assume they were the problem and
that bureaucracies were crippling getting on with the job. I did not witness
that in actuality at all and indeed saw the opposite. The people I met, who
dealt with me, were on the whole open to change, experienced, intelligent and
well-meaning. In my view we are lucky to have them.
“I
should also mention that dealing with the representatives of the various
sectors be they from the catholic system, the independent school sector, the
education unions and others was a pleasure. All had designated views and
agendas but all dealt with us cooperatively and constructively. This I found
very reassuring for the future – and I take the opportunity of this “postscript
speech” to thank them.”
Despite
evidence that universities are vitally important but that there are needs for
improvement in teaching and that for reasons not explained large numbers of
graduates have difficulty finding jobs, the government adopted policies for
higher education that, like those for schools, had no basis whatsoever in
evidence, were promoted by focus groups (which are relevant to what?) at great
cost and advocated through an advertising program which did not mention the
great cuts to research funding.
And
the ABC and SBS had their funds further reduced. Like CSIRO, excuses were made
and the issues ignored and the blame avoided. That any government concerned for
education and an informed citizenry and future prosperity would of necessity
generously fund scientific research and public broadcasting escapes these
people. The ABC and SBS deliver an extraordinary array of material of extremely
high quality. But as ABC’s Mark Scott has said the focus is on some small part
of what they do. Skilled and experienced people left. Skilled and experienced
scientists continued to leave CSIRO after a plethora of reviews over more than
25 years. In both places corporatisation has delivered exactly what?
The
greatest tragedy of the budget, though in this sense the present government is
not completely different only much worse, is the way it has ignored the major
challenges facing humanity. Those will always be argued about but inequality,
addressed by CEO of the IMF, the Governor of the Bank of England and French
academic Thomas Piketty as well as a host of others, immediately comes to mind.
Of
the many excellent reports of those challenges, the Oxford Martin Commission,
“Now for the Long Term”, chaired by former Director-General of the World Trade
Organisation Pascal Lamy (and including an astonishing array of internationally
respected economists, specialists and political leaders) can be mentioned. And
there are several insightful reports from the United Nations and the OECD. When
Lamy visited Australia mid-year the Commission’s report received media
attention only from the ABC and he met no government Minister! I don’t know if
he met any business group. His talks in capital cities were booked out. (The
visit was promoted by the Centre for Policy development.)
______________________
Here
are three recent tweets of mine, relevant to the above, that those who do not
tweet will have missed (no doubt to the relief of some):
Try this. If
scientific organisations employed methods of banks & corporates astronomy
would hardly have advanced beyond Galileo. More
Try this. If
scientific organisations employed methods of banks & corporates we wd b
drawing blood 2 cure illness. DNA search wd b 2 risky!
Advances gain f prev
unknown knowledge & skills. Instead of colonisation & takeover try join
w others 2 leverage knowledge Mkt econ model NO
If
the meaning of these ravings are not clear, I can explain. I consider that
banks and too many (not all) other corporates are engaged, not in innovative
solutions to advance society, but simple behaviours merely to enrich a few
people who fund them.
After
all banks have gotten into trouble because they did things like decide to
reward people for lending money without any regard to whether the loan would
likely be repaid; they could have decided to reward only those who had made
successful loans. Even better they could have engaged with a multiple of
reinforcing goals such as “advance economic performance whilst encouraging
innovation in pursuit of improving the health of minorities (or even the middle
class)”.
Consider
the recent behaviour of the ANZ bank (whose chair is a climate change denier)
which bought an investment vehicle at a knock down price and then pursued the
debtors, closing their mortgages if they missed one payment. These are farmers:
what were National Party politicians like Barnaby Joyce doing? Answer: nothing!
The
chair of the National Australia Bank Michael Chaney recently said that banks
had a duty to fund the mining of coal! This is even more stupid than Abbott’s
comment that coal was good. Banks have no obligation to fund anything other
than what is consistent with their goals and prudent. Chaney was once chair of
the Business Council and advocated then, as the BCA still does, nonsensical
views about financial incentives driving teacher performance and test scores
representing teacher competence.
The
behaviour of the Commonwealth Bank is well known.
For
the rest, consider corporate failings and illegal behaviours. I have a list.
As
to colonisation and takeovers. The first thing to recognise is the huge cost
over time. Most of these ventures are loss-making. Consider Vietnam and Algeria, not to mention
French and British interests in the Middle East. (The British betrayed those
who gave their support to the defeat of the Turkish forces in WW1 and British
and French representatives divided up the land as they had in Africa to suit
themselves.) The present insurgencies in Syria and Iraq represent the ongoing
return on investment by those powers.
All
colonised peoples have knowledge and skills of great value which are completely
ignored and supressed so that the people can be applied to the simple tasks of
working at little or no wages in enterprises which the colonizers have dreamed
up as appropriate to achieving their own ends. Such as ground nut farming in
East Africa. (See the history of pioneer ANU anthropologist Bill Stanner whose
writings were recently edited by Robert Manne, the novel and play “The Secret
River”, Bill Gammage’s book, “The Biggest Estate on Earth” and “Into the Heart
of Darkness”, etc, etc)
Most
company mergers in the end benefit only the lawyers who arrange the mergers and
a few people who get “success fees”. What generally follows is downsizing or,
in other words in not a few cases, at least temporary unemployment sometimes
leading to worse. The simple solution to “wealth generation” is followed: cut
the costs by increasing the margins which results in increase in the stock
price which, since the “investors” leverage their borrowing against stock,
represents a considerable gain for them. When they have made enough they sell
on the company which by now is diminished. All a result of companies
considering the main role to be generation of wealth for their shareholders
rather than providing needed goods and services to a specific market.
The
boards of such merged companies often contain no person who actually knows
anything about the business; the directors are rewarded with large fees, a
process which makes virtually no difference to performance as has been
demonstrated by research on behavioural economics. Employees are hired by
another company so the principal company doesn’t have to worry about the
workplace conditions. And employees are engaged in whatever country pays the
lowest wages with little or no regard to conditions of employment or any sense
of decency. (See ‘Why Work Is More and More Debased’ by Robert Kuttner in New
York Review of Books October 23, 2014 reviewing ‘The Fissured Workplace: Why
Work Became So Bad For So Many and What Can Be Done to Improve It’ by David
Weil and ‘Private Equity at Work: When Wall Street Manages Main Street’ by
Eileen Appelbaum and Rosemary Batt.)
The
very much more productive alternative would be for companies to merge when each
recognises the other has experience and skills which the principal company, or
both, lacks but has identified as critical to its progress. What would follow
is not sackings but a period of considerable training and development of all
staff in the new company in the areas critical to success. Those asked to leave
are only those who reveal that they are not comfortable with the nature of the
new business. (IR policies rest on best practice as revealed by best research
and law.)
If
this seems too much like naïve and ignorant nonsense answer this question: how
has the European Space Agency managed to land vehicles on a moon of Jupiter and
a comet, a process which in each case involved hundreds of scientists from many
different countries over a very long time? And how did they get the Hadron
Super Collider to “discover” the Higgs particle? In the latter case the
machinery broke down at one point: 3,000 scientists and technicians worked at
fixing it! How have the hospitals which are expert at managing the most
critical medical problems got to be that way? (This year’s Reith lectures by
Michael Gawande give a clue about managing complex problems such as bringing
back to life persons severely injured and seemingly dead after accidents. A
clue: the answer isn’t money or competition. You guessed it, it is
cooperation!)
Compare
the ESA achievements with the relatively simple tasks of rolling out the NBN,
installing pink bats, putting in place a universal ticketing system for
Sydney’s public transport system and – yes I know that is very much more
difficult than putting a decent education or health system in place against the
wishes of entrenched privilege) – transiting to a low carbon economy!
The
fact is that the politicians and the corporate boards we have in place are not
fit for purpose, mainly through intellectual laziness and an overwhelming
belief that what they have been brought up to believe is the eternal truth. The
influence of those in leadership positions is followed almost unquestionably
until they are found to be no longer of use! Sensible decision-making requires
constant challenge and exposure to alternative views!
Almost
none of these people would dare to consider the proposition that we would all
be better off if there was a substantial reduction in inequality, if those on
the margin, especially indigenous people*, were granted the dignity and
recognition to which they are entitled including equitable access to the
judicial system, if the poor were adequately housed rather than living on the
street and the seriously disadvantaged cared for, if drug addiction were
treated as an illness and not a crime, if children were encouraged to play by
themselves unsupervised as part of their learning, if test scores at school
were abandoned because all that can be measured is of little consequence, if
investment in childhood education was considered the key to the future, if health
care were paid for through taxes because the net gain to the community at large
is positive over the longer term, if public transport, urban planning and
health were recognised as fundamental to a just society and to gains in other
areas, if industrial relations were recognised as constituting the processes
for mutual satisfaction of competing wants in the alternative village that
workplaces are, if investment in scientific research, certainly not economic
growth or population growth, was recognised as the principal driver of future
prosperity broadly defined. And if the military had to run cake stalls to
generate the funding for their weapons!
I
believe these are amongst the most important and critical issues. The economy
is not the principal issue, at individual, family, local or national or
international level. Writers like the Australian sociologist Hugh Mackay have
been saying this for some time and so have many people who have pointed to the
importance of issues beyond the economic.
In
his commencement address at American University Jine 10 1963, President John F
Kennedy said, “So, let us not be blind to
our differences–but let us also direct attention to our common interests and to
the means by which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now
our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity. For,
in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this
small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s
future. And we are all mortal…”
I
finish with some of my favourite quotes. They come from the 2010 Deakin lecture
by Tim Jackson, Professor of Sustainability at the University of Surrey.
(Jackson is featured on TED. One of the first actions of the UK government of
David Cameron was to dismiss the UK Sustainable Development Commission: the
parallels with Australia will be obvious.)
“The concept of prosperity as an ongoing
drive for growth is inconsistent with human nature. … prosperity has a
meaningful sense that isn’t directly about income growth. It’s about the health
of our families. It’s about the trust of our friends. It’s about the security
of our communities. It’s about participation in the life of society. It’s about
some sense perhaps of having a meaningful life and a hope for the future…
“We evolved as much
as social beings as we did as individual beings. We evolved as much in laying
down the foundations for a stable society as we did in continually pursuing
novelty…”
Some
of these ideas are explored in my book “Education: the
Unwinding of Intelligence and Creativity” (published early this year by
Springer) and in other posts on this site.
_________________
Indigenous Australians fought in both world
wars: they enlisted only by concealing their racial background. When they
returned they were granted no benefits accorded to non-indigenous returned
soldiers, not even able to enter RSL clubs. Their names are not inscribed on
the honour rolls of the Australian War Memorial. (The huge turnout at a
ceremony arranged by descendants of these people gives the lies to the
proposition that symbolic gestures are of no significance and that what matters
is practical reconciliation, in other words assimilation!) This was revealed in
a Summer Special program on ABC RN on December 31 2014, and enterprise which as
I have said, like most other things of value is being trashed by the present
government.
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